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Prediction for CME (2024-09-13T10:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-09-13T10:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33395/-1
CME Note: Faint CME with a clear front directed towards the northwest in SOHO and north in STEREO A COR2, indicating its directedness towards STEREO A and a bit north. Likely source is is flaring south of AR 3814 (N12W33) around 2024-09-13T08:24Z, accompanied by a medium-sized dimming and minor post-eruptive arcades. This eruption is right at the disk center in STEREO A EUV imagery. In EUVI A 304 we also see a small ejecta directed southwards. The arrival is characterized by small magnetic field increases seen at ACE/DSCOVR between 2024-09-16T04:00Z and 10:00Z and very smooth, stabilizing magnetic field components or evidence for a flux rope occurring near 16:00Z. There also seem to be very minor density and temperature enhancements as well, though these signatures are not as clear. Around 2024-09-16T05:00Z, L1 may passes over one of the flanks, where the flank shock is still visible in simulations, and later, around 2024-09-16T18:00Z, the CME passes over one of the legs of the CME structure.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-09-16T04:54Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-16T11:23Z (-5.47h, +8.82h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/09/13 10:25Z
Plane of Sky 1: 19:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 01:30Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction
POS Difference: 6:10
POS Midpoint: 22:25Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 12:00

Numeric View/Impact Type: 3
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.08
Travel Time: ~6.08 * 12:00 = 72:58

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-09-16T11:23Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5 (Limited Imagery)
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/09/13 23:53Z

Lead Time: 52.97 hour(s)
Difference: -6.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-09-13T23:56Z

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